A new study published in Tropical Medicine and Health has issued another warning. Climate change could nearly double South Asia’s annual heat-related deaths to around 400,000 by 2045, translating to 46 deaths every hour if current trends persist. The research found that South Asia bears the highest global burden of heat-related deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) accounting for up to 51% of the world’s total. India and Pakistan are identified as the most vulnerable, followed closely by Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Vulnerable Populations and Major Causes
The study highlights that children under five and adults over 55 are the most affected, with cardiovascular diseases driving the majority of heat-related mortality. Men face higher risks due to occupational exposure, especially in outdoor jobs like construction and agriculture.
“The disease burden caused by high temperature is disproportionately concentrated in South Asia and Southeast Asia, presenting a critical public health challenge that requires urgent intervention,” the authors wrote.
Heat also impacts nutrition and chronic disease outcomes. Extreme temperatures can suppress appetite in children, increasing malnutrition risk, while older adults experience higher cardiovascular strain, worsening pre-existing conditions.
Using joinpoint regression and a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model, the researchers forecast both declining age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and rising absolute deaths mainly driven by aging populations and rapid urbanization. Countries like Timor-Leste, Mauritius, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh could even see rising ASMR despite adaptation gains elsewhere.
Policy Implications
The study calls for urgent adaptation strategies tailored to regional needs:
Strengthening health systems to manage temperature-related illnesses.
Expanding maternal, child, and chronic disease services.
Enhancing occupational safety for outdoor workers.
Investing in urban heat mitigation, early warning systems, and shelters.
Researchers stress that population growth and aging are offsetting improvements in healthcare and climate adaptation, making prevention and preparedness vital. The authors conclude that South Asia and Southeast Asia remain global hotspots for heat-related mortality, and without strong climate action, the toll will continue to rise — even as health systems improve. Protecting the young, elderly, and outdoor workers must now be a top regional priority.
