A new Global Burden of Disease (GBD), 2023 study estimates a dramatic rise in cancer mortality worldwide over the next quarter century, projecting that deaths from cancer may spike by as much as 75% by 2050. The analysis points to ageing populations as a key driver, along with rising exposure to risk factors in developing countries.
Key Statistics:
75% increase in cancer deaths projected over 25 years
The rise is largely fueled by population ageing, with more people living into older age brackets
Developing and low-income nations will bear a disproportionate share of this burden due to weaker health systems and limited screening coverage
The study highlights that while some high-income countries may see slower growth in cancer mortality, many middle- and lower-income nations are on the brink of an explosion in diagnoses and deaths. Rapid transitions in lifestyle such as increased sedentary behaviour, dietary changes, tobacco and alcohol use further compound the risk.
Experts caution that without substantial improvements in cancer prevention, early detection, and treatment capacity, health systems in many countries will be overwhelmed. These systems must prioritize scalable screening programmes, strengthen oncology infrastructure, and ensure equitable access to diagnostics and care.
The authors recommend policy actions including:
Expanded coverage of cancer screening (breast, cervical, colorectal)
Tackling modifiable risk factors (smoking, obesity, pollution)
Investing in health systems and workforce capacity
Fostering global cooperation to share technologies and reduce cost barriers
The looming increase is not inevitable. With strategic interventions and timely policy shifts, much of the projected burden can be mitigated. But the window for action is narrowing.
